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Private Markets Intelligence – April 2025

In this article

  • State of DPI – For the first time since 2015, distributions to LPs outpaced capital contributions. But will this momentum hold amid ongoing market headwinds?
  • Green Investment Trends – Clean energy investment hit a record $2.1T, with capital flowing toward proven technologies while emerging innovations face funding challenges.
  • When NOT to Invest – In private markets, the ability to walk away from a deal can be just as valuable as recognizing a promising opportunity.

State of DPI 

  • Last year, for the first time since 2015, distributions to LPs exceeded capital contributionsa (1). This is a breath of fresh air for LPs hyper-focused on Distributions to Paid-In Capital after holding investments much longer than projected. 
  • The deals that generated the distributions were lumpy, though. Deal value increased by 14% after two consecutive years of decline (VC, growth, and buyout all reported increases), while deal count was down, most notably in VC with a 16.9% drop (1).  
  • 2024 data provides a glimmer of hope, but 2025 hasn’t panned out to be the deal bonanza bankers had hoped for. The factors keeping DPI low over the past few years – high interest rates, few IPOs, macro and geopolitical uncertainty – are nowhere near resolved. 
  • Add to the mix, Q4 2024 private company performance data shows that “value creation” has been harder to realize (2). According to Lincoln International (3), EBITDA and revenue growth were each at the slowest rates since 2020. Unmet growth targets make it harder for a sponsor to sell. Berkshire Hathaway’s annual letter to shareholders provides an additional data point, with half of their 189 operating businesses experiencing earnings declines (4), showing long term investors like Berkshire are also seeing sluggish performance. 

The Takeaway

Despite relief for some in 2024, DPI will continue to be a touchy subject. 2025 has inherited all the 2024 concerns and added escalating trade wars. GPs are pulling all the DPI levers available, including tapping a hot secondaries market, but optimistic 2024 data does not necessarily translate to a liquid 2025. In the face of continued DPI headwinds, LPs should place added focus on liquidity and cash flow planning. 

a. Data available as of H1 2024 

(1) McKinsey Global Private Markets Report 
(2) PitchBook 
(3) The Lincoln Private Market Index measures quarterly changes in the enterprise values of ~1,500 private companies, based on a population of 5,750+ companies primarily owned by private equity firms with a median EBITDA of ~$40-45 million 
(4) Berkshire Hathaway annual letter to shareholders 

Green Investment is Following the Tried and True 

  

  • The world now invests almost twice as much in clean energy as it does in fossil fuels (1), exceeding $2 trillion for the first time in 2024. 

  

  • China dominated in 2024, allocating more than the US, EU and UK combined. After posting strong growth in 2023, investment in the US was stagnant and the EU and UK both experienced a decrease.  
  • Proven technologies that are commercially scalable attracted most of the investment in 2024, recording 14.7% growth (2). The flavor of choice for power generation is solar; global annual investment in photovoltaic has surpassed all other generation technologies combined.  
  • Investment in emerging technologies dropped 23% (2) due to a lack of affordability and unproven commercial scalability, significantly reducing funds available for the continued development of promising technologies like hydrogen and cutting-edge nuclear. This reflects the tug-and-pull between long-term sustainability goals and short-term economic pressures. 
  • While most energy investments are made by corporates, private households are increasingly becoming a major source of capital. The share of total energy investments made by private households doubled from 9% in 2015 to 18% in 2024, mainly through investments in rooftop solar, building efficiency and EVs (2).  

  

The Takeaway

Solar is leading the charge, backed by funding from institutional investors and private households alike. Decreasing investment in emerging power sources highlights the importance of de-risking new technologies. De-risking will require collaboration between the public and private sectors and could boost U.S. clean energy investment. As an investor, it’s worth considering investments in both theses – those that are commercially scalable and those that are potential game changers.   

  Global investment in clean energy and fossil fuels, 2015-2024 

 (1) International Energy Agency
(2) Bloomberg NEF 

Investor Toolkit: When NOT to Invest

In private markets, the ability to walk away from a deal can be just as valuable as recognizing a promising opportunity. Access the Clockwork Toolkit for an outline of key red flags and a due diligence template to guide your decision-making process.  

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